NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower on Thursday due to technical selling by the market participants after it reaches 4 month high. However, the trend is still positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates for meal exports for 2017/18. Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals.
According to SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
According to SEA, India’s soymeal exports during November surged to 207,630 tn from 97,750 tn a year ago. For Apr-Nov, exports of soymeal were estimated at 768,981 tn compared with 204,860 tn a year ago.
US Soybean fell on Thursday, pressured by technical selling amid good progress in Brazil soy planting progress which is ahead of average planting. A sharp fall in China soybean prices pressurize prices. The soybeans in Brazil are 92% planted compared to 87% average. At the start of November the soybean planting was behind the average pace, but good rains during the month allowed planting to move ahead of average by the end of the month.
Mustard Jan futures continue to close lower for 4th consecutive day yesterday due to steady demand and higher inventories with the traders and farmers. According to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov’17 was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month.
As per rabi sowing report from the government, the acreage of mustard, another major rabi crop, was at 56 lakh ha, down from 61 lakh ha a year ago. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.3 lakh ha Vs 27.3 lakh ha.
Soybean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on good demand for new season crop for domestic crushing as edible oil import duty is hiked. Moreover, higher incentives for oil meal export, good meal exports and higher estimates for meal exports will also support soybean prices.
Mustard futures expected to trade sideways to lower on higher stocks with the oil mills and good start to rabi sowing. However, anticipation of good physical uptake by oil mills on expectation of good winter demand may keep prices supported above 4000 levels.
Refined Soy Oil Jan contract is on correction mode this week and down close to 1% yesterday due to higher stock levels and weak international prices. The prices have jumped higher when government increase the import duty of all edible oils. The government raised the duty of the crude soy oil to 30% from 17.5% to support domestic oilseed industry and farmers. The physical demand also increased from the bulk buyers on anticipation of further rise in prices.
For the first half of December, government cut the base import price of soy oil, by $18 per tonnes. The government revises base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Nov 15.
As per latest SEA import report, Soybean oil imports slumped 21% to 220,200 tons in October from a year earlier while imports dropped during the oil year ended Oct. 31 by 22 % to 3.32 mt.
MCX CPO fall more than 1% on Thursday tracking weak overseas prices and strength in rupees during past 15 days. Moreover, government reduced base import price of all edible oils, with the steepest plunge of $26 per tn in crude palm oil for first half of December.
The prices have jumped higher in Nov when center has raised the import duty on crude palm oil to 30% from 15% and on refined oil to 40% from 25% in a bid to curb cheaper shipments and boost local prices for supporting farmers and refiners.
Malaysian palm extended falls into a fourth session on Thursday, hitting their lowest in nearly five months in the evening, tracking weakness in related edible oils. Palm oil prices down by 3.9 % so far this week, heading for a sixth weekly fall, and is down by about 10% since Nov. 1 `
According to Reuter’s survey, Palm oil inventories in Malaysia are forecast to rise to the highest in nearly two years at the end of November. Stockpiles are expected to swell 11.4 % to 2.44 mt from the end of October, while output is expected to fall 3% onmonth to 1.95 mt. Exports are seen falling in November, down 6% at 1.45 mt, the first monthly decline in five months.
We expect Ref Soy oil to trade sideways to down due to higher stocks and good domestic crushing. Moreover, higher import duty and good demand from the stockists is supporting edible oil prices at higher levels.
CPO futures may trade sideways to lower due to weaker international palm oil prices and reduced base import prices by the government for first half of December. Increase in import duty to 30% and 40% for crude palm oi and refine palm oil respectively has kept the prices at 10 months high.
Chana Dec futures continue to trade lower Thursday as fresh selling is seen due to improved sowing progress coupled with higher stocks in the country due to record imports. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports.
As per government sowing data, area under the rabi chana crop across the country was up 7.8% on year at 84 lakh ha as on last week. The acreage of chana in MP and Karnataka, the largest and the second-largest grower of pulse, was up 15.7% on year at 30.4 lakh ha, and up 44.6% on year at 12.7 lakh ha, respectively.
To encourage farmers, govt. increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.
Chana futures to trade sideways to down on good sowing progress while higher imports data for the current FY have increase stocks in the country also pressurizing prices.
MCX Dec Cotton continues to trade lower this week due to fresh selling by the market participants at higher levels. Prices have been trading higher this season on expectation of big fall in output due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Concerns about crop quality have also impacted prices.
According to trade sources, about 60 lakh bales have arrived in the Indian markets this season compared to 47.3 lakh bales last year till Dec 1.
ICE cotton climbed 2 percent on Thursday, touching a sevenmonth high, as investors rolled over their position to the March contract after expiry of December. Moreover, stronger cotton shipments pushed prices up further.
Shipments of US upland cotton totaled 246,763 RB during the week of Nov 30 which was up 120% from the previous week and 7% higher that this time last year. The USDA also reported 50,368 RB in 2018/19 sales.
Cotton futures are expected trade sideways to higher on steady arrivals and loss of production due to pest attack in three biggest cotton growing states. Arrivals are still slow in India with just 1.70 lakh bales reaching mandis daily in early December, when it should have crossed 2.25 lakh bales. Moreover, good physical demand from the mills and traders and commencement of procurement by CCI also keeping prices supportive.
NCDEX Jan Jeera closed little higher on Thursday on some fresh buying initiated by market participants. Earlier, this week prices have corrected mainly due to encouraging jeera sowing progress in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 50% to 2.7 lakh ha this year compared to 1.8 lakh ha last year as on 4 th Dec. As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India’s jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. On the import front, country imported about 998 tonnes of jeera during the month of Sep and thus the imports this FY is higher by about 60% compared to last year.
Turmeric Apr futures closed higher on fresh buying by the Market Participants at lower levels. Earlier, good supplies from the government auctions and lower exports data pressurize prices. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals increase in November this year to 9,431 tonnes compared to 7,211 tonnes last year same month according to Agmarknet data.
We expect Jeera Dec futures to trade sideways to lower on expectation of further technical correction as sowing progress is encouraging in Gujarat. Recently, export demand drive prices to all-time highs coupled with diminishing stocks with the traders also supporting prices.
Turmeric futures expected to trade sideways on expectation of new season arrivals and lower demand for exports. The turmeric prices may get support from the up country demand however supplies from the government auctions and arrivals of medium quality supplies may keep the prices sideways