NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive day on Friday mainly on fresh selling initiated by the market participants tracking spot prices. However, the trend looks positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates of meal exports for 2017/18. Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals.
According to SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
India’s soymeal exports during November surged to 207,630 tn from 97,750 tn a year ago. For Apr-Nov, exports of soymeal were estimated at 768,981 tn compared with 204,860 tn a year ago as per SEA monthly report.
US Soybean settled 2-1/4 cents lower at $9.89-3/4 a bushel dropped 0.4 percent last week after rising in the previous four weeks mainly on improved weather conditions in Brazil and encouraging exports numbers.
Consultancy AgRural raised its forecast for 2017-18 Brazil soybean production to 112.9 mt from 110.2 mt. The USDA reported private export sales of 268,000 t of soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. They also announced an additional 129,000 MT sold to Unknown destinations.
Mustard Jan futures continue to close lower for 5th consecutive day on Friday due to steady physical demand and reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers. According to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov’17 was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month.
As per rabi sowing report from the government, the acreage of mustard, another major rabi crop, was at 59 lakh ha, down from 64 lakh ha a year ago. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.4 lakh ha.
Ncdex Soybean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on good physical demand for new season crop for crushing needs as edible oil import duty is hiked. Moreover, higher incentives for oil meal export, good meal exports and higher estimates for meal exports will also support soybean prices.
Mustard futures expected to trade sideways on higher stocks with the oil mills and good start to rabi sowing. However, anticipation of good physical uptake by oil mills on expectation of good winter demand may keep prices supported above 4000 levels.
Refined Soy Oil Jan contract corrected closed to 2.8% last week due to higher stock levels, stronger rupee and weak international prices.
The prices have jumped higher to its 10 months higher when government increases the import duty of all edible oils. The government raised the duty of the crude soy oil to 30% from 17.5% to support domestic oilseed industry and farmers.
For the first half of December, government cut the base import price of soy oil, by $18 per tonnes. The government revises base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Nov 15.
As per latest SEA import report, Soybean oil imports slumped 21% to 220,200 tons in October from a year earlier while imports dropped during the oil year ended Oct. 31 by 22 % to 3.32 mt.
MCX CPO fall more than 1% for the second consecutive day on Friday tracking weak Malaysian palm oil prices and strength in rupees during past 15 days which makes imports cheaper for Indian importers.
Moreover, government reduced base import price of all edible oils, with the steepest plunge of $26 per tn in crude palm oil for first half of December.
The prices have jumped higher in Nov when center has raised the import duty on crude palm oil to 30% from 15% and on refined oil to 40% from 25% in a bid to curb cheaper shipments and boost local prices for supporting farmers and refiners.
Malaysian palm fell for a fifth consecutive day on Friday, hitting a fresh five-month low as the prices was weighed down by concerns over high stockpiles amid expectation of higher production and lower exports data.
Stockpiles at end-November are seen rising 11.4 percent to 2.44 mt on the month, according to a Reuters poll, while output is pegged to drop 3 percent to 1.95 mt. Exports are forecast to fall 6 percent in November to 1.45 mt from October. Official data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is scheduled for release on December 12.
We expect Ref Soy oil to trade sideways to down due to higher stocks, good domestic crushing and weaker rupees. Moreover, higher import duty and good demand from the stockists is may support prices.
CPO futures may trade sideways to lower due to weaker international palm oil prices and reduced base import prices by the government for first half of December.
Chana Jan futures plunge more than 6.3% last week as fresh selling is seen throughout the week due to improved sowing progress coupled with higher stocks in the country due to record imports. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports.
As per government sowing data, area under the rabi chana crop across the country was up 10.25% on year at 89.6 lakh ha as on last week. The acreage of chana in MP and Karnataka, the largest and the second-largest grower of pulse, was up 17.1% on year at 31.24 lakh ha, and up 38.2% on year at 13.3 lakh ha, respectively.
To encourage farmers, govt. increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.
Chana futures to trade sideways to down on good sowing progress while higher imports data for the current FY have increase stocks in the country also pressurizing prices. Low level buying may support prices.
MCX Dec Cotton jumps higher by more than 2% on expectation of big fall in domestic output due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Concerns about crop quality have also impacted prices. Cotton production in Telangana this year is feared to come down drastically as it estimated that pink bollworm ay have eat up 40% of the cotton crop. According to trade sources, about 60 lakh bales have arrived in the Indian markets this season compared to 47.3 lakh bales last year till Dec 1.
ICE cotton fell on Friday after hitting an over seven-month high earlier in the session as investors took profits and as the U.S. dollar firmed.
Managed money spec traders climbed back to their largest net long position since mid-May at 82,409 contracts. That was an increase of 11,681 contracts over the week that ended 12/5. The USDA Ag Attaché in China expects the country to show 5.4 mt in 17/18 production, with total usage at 8.5 mt while importing 1.3 mt, an increase of 0.2 mt from 16/17.
Cotton futures are expected trade higher on less than expected arrivals and reports of loss in production due to pest attack in three biggest cotton growing states. Arrivals are still slow in India with just 1.70 lakh bales reaching mandis daily in early December, when it should have crossed 2.25 lakh bales. Moreover, good physical demand from the mills and traders and commencement of procurement by CCI may keep prices supportive.
NCDEX Jan Jeera falls on Friday on fresh selling initiated by the market participants at higher levels coupled with encouraging jeera sowing progress in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 50% to 2.7 lakh ha this year compared to 1.8 lakh ha last year as on 4 th Dec.
As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India’s jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 10 days of Dec down by 60% to 906.7 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.
Turmeric Apr futures closed lower on fresh selling by the Market Participants on expectation of good supplies from the new season. The supplies will be higher due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher during first 10 days in December this year to 10,130 tonnes compared to 3,372 tonnes last year same month according to Agmarknet data.
We expect Jeera Jan futures to trade sideways to lower on expectation of further technical correction as sowing progress is encouraging in Gujarat. Recently, export demand drive prices to all-time highs coupled with diminishing stocks with the traders also supporting prices. However, increase in exports demand may drive prices higher.
Turmeric Apr futures expected to trade sideways to lower on expectation of new season arrivals and lower demand for exports. The turmeric prices may get support from the up country demand however supplies from the government auctions and arrivals of medium quality supplies may keep the prices sideways.
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