GOLD : Gold prices traded on a stable note before the release of key US non-farm payroll numbers, where projections call for an addition of just 183,000 jobs in July, when compared with 222,000 during the prior month. The precious pack is also deriving an element of support from growing political uncertainty in US. A grand jury is commissioned to investigate whether Russia meddled in the recent US national elections. Suspected links of US President Trump with Russian agencies has haunted the White House and also derailed the legislative agenda.
For the last five consecutive days, Gold prices were unable to close above $1270 (28800) whenever it reached the higher side. More of selling pressure which reflects consolidation with sideways trend.
The daily chart which is a cross over moving average, where the Long term 100-day moving average of gold prices crosses above the Short term 50-day moving average as seen in the chart. This indicates a bullish momentum. Buy signal is given at $1251(28500). On such occasions, the moving average crossover system can be an effective strategy that can be adopted.
As well as daily candle closed bullish Hammer which is indicating bullish momentum, I hope market will react to cross over moving average and the expected target would be $1283-$1300 (28770-29350).
The long-term view suggests that a next struggling place will be at $1300(29600). A break above and close of a day candle could lead to fresh high at $1350(30600)
CRUDE OIL : Oil futures lost further ground, as markets suspect OPEC’s compliance a production cuts declined further in July from 95% in June. Extremely low compliance by same members like Iraq and UAE is counterbalancing the heavy-lifting by Saudi Arabia.
WTI crude oil prices were unable to sustain in resistance area at $50(3200) which project as sentimental prices.
I have been analyzing daily crude oil chart, the current prices hold below 200-day moving average at $49.45 which indicates negative territory. The overall oil market trend indicates Megaphone chart pattern. In this pattern, long term trend identification can be seen when there is a break above at $50.20 and closes the daily candle which will turn the momentum from negative to positive and extend towards $ 52-55. In case it does not break then downside target would be $45-40 level.
I have analyzing the intraday one-hour chart which has formed “Megaphone chart pattern”. The prices currently hold near support area, a break below $48.60 could lead to downside target $47.67-46.67 within a short span of time.
On the other hand if it does not break below, it would take a strong support and offer a pullback towards $50-52(3130-3333) levels again.